IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
East Tennessee St.
Southern
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.7	#153
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.8	#211
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#232

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.8	#90

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.0%	20.7%	9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.9%	3.2%	0.3%
Average Seed	13.1	12.4	13.5

.500 or above	74.9%	90.0%	70.7%
.500 or above in Conference	83.4%	90.9%	81.2%
Conference Champion	13.6%	20.7%	11.6%
Last Place in Conference	1.1%	0.3%	1.3%

First Four	0.9%	1.5%	0.8%
First Round	11.6%	19.9%	9.2%
Second Round	1.8%	3.8%	1.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	1.5%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.2	0.1 - 1.2
Quad 1b	0.4 - 1.8	0.5 - 3.0
Quad 2	1.3 - 2.8	1.8 - 5.8
Quad 3	3.3 - 3.1	5.1 - 8.8
Quad 4	12.2 - 2.9	17.3 - 11.7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	85	@ Georgia St.	L	66-71	22%
Nov 11, 2018	41	@ Creighton	L	68-78	13%
Nov 17, 2018	194	@ Winthrop	W	74-72	48%
Nov 19, 2018	350	Chicago St.	W	80-63	96%
Nov 20, 2018	258	Sam Houston St.	W	69-63	80%
Nov 24, 2018	199	North Dakota St.	W	68-65	69%
Nov 27, 2018	148	@ Georgia Southern	L	69-70	38%
Dec 01, 2018	97	@ Wofford	L	67-71	27%
Dec 08, 2018	285	Tennessee Martin	W	69-62	81%
Dec 15, 2018	76	@ Illinois	L	69-75	22%
Dec 21, 2018	173	Wyoming	W	74-73	55%
Dec 22, 2018	277	Norfolk St.	W	73-66	72%
Dec 29, 2018	123	Furman	L	68-70	51%
Jan 03, 2019	322	Samford	W	79-68	87%
Jan 05, 2019	314	Chattanooga	W	70-60	86%
Jan 10, 2019	265	@ The Citadel	W	85-78	61%
Jan 12, 2019	272	@ Mercer	W	69-62	61%
Jan 17, 2019	310	VMI	W	72-63	85%
Jan 19, 2019	86	UNC Greensboro	L	62-67	44%
Jan 26, 2019	307	@ Western Carolina	W	73-64	69%
Jan 31, 2019	322	@ Samford	W	79-68	74%
Feb 02, 2019	314	@ Chattanooga	W	70-60	72%
Feb 07, 2019	97	Wofford	L	67-71	47%
Feb 09, 2019	123	@ Furman	L	68-70	32%
Feb 14, 2019	265	The Citadel	W	85-78	78%
Feb 16, 2019	272	Mercer	W	69-62	79%
Feb 21, 2019	310	@ VMI	W	72-63	70%
Feb 24, 2019	86	@ UNC Greensboro	L	62-67	26%
Mar 02, 2019	307	Western Carolina	W	73-64	84%
Projected Record						17.3 - 11.7	11.3 - 6.7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	2.5	4.1	3.8	2.0	0.5		13.6	1st
2nd										0.0	0.0	0.5	2.1	5.2	5.8	3.3	0.6				17.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.3	4.2	6.7	5.6	1.8	0.1					19.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.3	6.0	7.0	3.8	0.9	0.0						20.3	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.5	5.2	3.8	1.3	0.1								13.3	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	1.9	3.2	1.5	0.3	0.0									7.4	6th
7th					0.0	0.3	1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1											3.8	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	0.8	1.1	0.3	0.0												2.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0													1.3	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1															0.5	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.6	2.9	4.1	6.6	9.3	11.4	13.0	12.9	12.2	10.1	7.5	4.4	2.0	0.5			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
17-1	100.0%	2.0		1.8	0.1
16-2	86.2%	3.8		2.9	0.9	0.0
15-3	55.1%	4.1		2.1	1.8	0.3	0.0
14-4	24.8%	2.5		0.7	1.3	0.4	0.0
13-5	4.5%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.6%	13.6		8.3	4.3	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.5%		71.1%	61.4%	9.7%	8.6			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.2		25.1%
17-1	2.0%		62.3%	45.0%	17.2%	10.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1			0.7		31.4%
16-2	4.4%		44.7%	39.1%	5.6%	12.1						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.0		2.4		9.2%
15-3	7.5%		28.8%	27.6%	1.2%	12.9										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0	5.3		1.6%
14-4	10.1%		21.0%	20.4%	0.5%	13.4											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.2	0.0	8.0		0.7%
13-5	12.2%		11.5%	11.5%	0.0%	14.1												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.1	10.8		0.0%
12-6	12.9%		9.6%	9.6%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.2	11.6
11-7	13.0%		5.5%	5.5%		15.1														0.0	0.2	0.2	0.3	12.3
10-8	11.4%		4.2%	4.2%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	11.0
9-9	9.3%		1.7%	1.7%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.2
8-10	6.6%		1.7%	1.7%		15.8																0.0	0.1	6.5
7-11	4.1%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.1
6-12	2.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.9
5-13	1.6%																							1.6
4-14	0.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
3-15	0.4%																							0.4
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.0%	11.2%	0.8%	13.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.0	2.0	2.6	2.5	1.9	1.1	88.0		0.9%